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Commercial Risk Guarantee Fund can secure doubling of 10 GW RES in Ukraine

After the large-scale war started by Russia since 2022 against Ukraine, more than a thousand attacks at energy infrastructure led to the total loss of available capacity of over 9 GW, half of which was restored; more than 18 GW of generation capacities are occupied.

Ukraine needs substantial quantities of new generating capacities, and thus it requires significant investments. Due to the cost competitiveness, safety, and speed of the construction, renewable energy is a solution. This was the topic described at the panel Renewable energy as an integral part of Ukraine's energy system security and economic strength during the conference ReBuild Ukraine, on November 13-14, in Warsaw, moderated by Oleksandra Gumeniuk from European Energy.

The latest investments in RES in the conditions of war

Olga Yeriomina, Associate Director, Senior Banker, Energy Europe, EBRD, informed the audience about the latest deals in the energy sector, among others aimed at loan and equity financing RES during the war. Since the start of the war, the Bank has invested around €5 billion in Ukraine, with circa €2 billion directed towards the energy projects. In the course of 2024, EBRD lended €60 million for its first private biofuels investment in wartime Ukraine and formed a renewable energy joint venture with the GOLDBECK SOLAR Group for Ukraine that targets development of up to 500 MWp of solar PV projects. The Bank has also mobilized new de-risking and risk-sharing tools from the European Union and other development organizations for over €600 million and more new announcements to come.

We are open for new investments in the renewable energy sector in Ukraine; the regulatory framework is improving, and reforms are aligned with the EU requirements progressing; however, there is still a problem of project bankability, specifically the offtake agreements, uncertainty of the revenue streams, and electricity market volatility, stressed out Olga Yeriomina.

The concept of the Commercial Risk Guarantee Fund

Following the point of the bankability challenges, Oleksandr Melnyk, Board Member, European-Ukrainian Energy Agency (EUEA) and Partner at GOLAW, presented the Commercial Risks Guarantee Fund concept, which was initiated by the EUEA and the Ukrainian Wind Energy Association.

To be established by the international financial organizations Commercial Risks Guarantee Fund will secure private RES companies from fluctuations on the electricity market by guaranteeing a minimum price for electricity, explained Oleksandr Melnyk. „We support the concept of Fund, as it can be a key driver for future investment viability, aiming to increase the resilience of the Ukrainian energy system and accelerate the deployment of renewable energy projects in Ukraine“, added a EBRD representative.

Successful cases of the private sector

OKKO Group’s €20 million investment in Battery Energy Storage Systems and the acquisition of a 150 MW wind project in Volyn underscore private sector engagement.
KNESS, a leader in BESS development, shared its success in winning TSO Ukrenergo's ancillary service auctions for 79 MW and emphasized the transformative potential of BESS as a key instrument for developing new business models beyond ancillary service, contributing to the creation of Ukraine’s new energy system.

Also see: Partnership for more solar and battery storage in the Ukraine

While sectoral associations like the Solar Energy Association of Ukraine contribute to the development of RES instruments as the active consumer model, solar power plants for self-consumption, and corporate PPAs, renewable initiatives are bolstered by international cooperation, like Deloitte's Future of Ukraine Program, which emphasizes partnerships and knowledge sharing.

NedZero, the wind energy association of the Netherlands, emphasizes partnership and knowledge sharing. With this in mind, the organization will sign a memorandum of understanding with the Ukrainian Wind Energy Association later this month during the Offshore Energy Exhibition and Conference in Amsterdam. NedZero is also aiming at setting up a consortium of Dutch companies with the purpose of implementing concrete wind energy projects in Ukraine, pointed out Bert van der Lingen, Vice Chairman, NedZero.

Also see: Backup solar power for Ukrainian hospitals

During two days of the whole Energy Conference at ReBuild Ukraine, prominent speakers from the Government of Lithuania reiterated the necessity of energy independence, supporting Ukraine’s aim for resilience. The UK, Poland, and Norway government representatives stressed renewables as essential for security, and the European Commission detailed ongoing efforts to de-risk investments through structured dialogues with financial sectors.

27% RES target by 2030

DFC's political risk insurance, IFC support, as well as the Energy Community’s Energy Support Fund are making an incredible contribution to the energy sector recovery and development, which is crucial taking into account the clearly established 27% RES target by 2030 to double the current 10 GW of capacity within five years in Ukraine under the National Energy and Climate Plan.

In closing, panelists reaffirmed that renewable energy is not only crucial for a sustainable future but also integral to Ukraine’s national security and resilience. Immediate support and innovative investments are essential for rebuilding Ukraine’s energy landscape with advanced, clean technologies. (hcn)