Until recently, the Tier 1 list consisted of manufacturers who meet three criteria. First, the manufacturer must demonstrate that at least six different projects of at least 1.5 megawatts have been built with its solar panels in the past two years. Secondly, these panels must be self-branded and self-produced, and thirdly, these projects must have been financed by six different commercial banks.
However, the criteria were suddenly changed recently. For example, the minimum size of the projects has been increased from 1.5 megawatts each to a minimum of 5 megawatts each. Because many of the recently joined Tier 1 manufacturers are building increasingly larger projects, but do not yet have at least six different projects of at least 5 megawatts, they have recently been 'downgraded' to the Tier 2 list.
JinkoSolar has an annual production capacity of around 100 gigawatts (and therefore effortlessly meets the first and second requirements to get to) and has been at the top of the Tier 1 list for some time now. Since the list was only presented 23 May, there is no official response from Jinko yet, but the disappearance of Jinko from the list is remarkable, because the first quarter figures showed that of the Tier 1 manufacturers that produce N-type solar panels with TOPCon cells, only JinkoSolar, Trina Solar and Canadian Solar have made a profit.
„Now it seems to backfire“
"JinkoSolar has been taken off the Tier 1 list, presumably due to financial issues in other business units, but it is certainly not the only Chinese manufacturer with problems. What makes this extra special is the fact that JinkoSolar is one of the absolute frontrunners and market leader in the field of N-type technology, which is currently dominant in the market," says Scheper.
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In recent months, the prices of Chinese solar panels have fallen so far that several European and smaller Chinese manufacturers have run into problems. They are less able to lower their prices and usually have less capital to sit out such a period. According to Scheper, the five largest Tier 1 players have therefore seized the moment to push many of these manufacturers out of the market.
"But now it seems to backfire. Recently, there was already a major round of layoffs at Longi and now the problems at JinkoSolar are also coming to light. The suspicion was that they would not make any losses at current prices, but they apparently managed to hide that by 'writing off' the losses within various business units. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts, as several smaller manufacturers have already re-entered the Tier 1 list."
What is the situation in the Netherlands?
A recent survey by Techniek Nederland showed that the number of project leads for solar had increased by about 10 percent among its members. This was after the Senate had decided not to abolish the net metering scheme for the time being and because the spring causes an increase in demand every year.
However, Dutch election winning political parties have announced in their coalition agreement that the net metering scheme will be abolished in one go as of January 1, 2027. It also became clear that they want to get rid of mandatory energy label improvement steps for owner-occupied homes and that various subsidies for renewable energy – including the large project SDE++ subsidy – will be scaled down.
On top of that, several energy suppliers have started charging feed-in costs to households with solar panels in recent months, which seem to be causing great confusion among consumers. The Netherlands Authority for Consumers and Markets (ACM) recently announced that these costs may not be calculated separately in a standard contract with variable tariffs, but passing them on in the tariffs is allowed. In addition, the coalition parties have announced that they see the feed-in costs as an undesirable form of fine.
„The solar sector also needs to look at itself“
"Demand from Dutch consumers is at a standstill due to all these kinds of policy fluctuations around the net metering scheme and feed-in costs. Consumers want to have clarity about their payback period and now feel that this is changing by the week," says Scheper.
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"In doing so, the solar energy sector also needs to look at itself. Too little was invested in marketing in the 'fat years' and the consumer has only heard about the importance of the payback period. Under certain market conditions, this can vary by a year. But solar panels last 25 to 35 years, so you have to explain to consumers that they have access to free electricity for a very long time. With or without a net metering scheme."
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Finally, according to Scheper, there is still a ray of hope: commercial projects – especially with battery storage – are starting to run again. "Of course, large-scale projects are hampered by grid congestion and high interest rates, but a new drop in interest rates seems to be coming and you can currently install solar parks with batteries at a very decent return. That can give you some breathing space." (GS/hcn)
