Cables in the Baltic repeatedly sabotaged, devastating storms leaving Ireland in the dark, war raging in Ukraine and price shocks caused by Russia’s fuel disruptions: Europe’s energy system is being challenged like never before. All the while, Europe is decarbonising its economy with clean and renewable power set to meet 60% of final energy use by 2050. As energy needs evolve, so should Europe’s energy security strategy.
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The EU’s current energy security strategy was adopted in 2014, at a time when countries relied heavily on Russian imports and renewables made up only a small fraction of the overall mix. Today, this picture has fundamentally changed. Energy imports are expected to decrease from 60% of EU energy supply in 2022 to 13% by 2050, thanks to transport and heating electrification. Renewables are set to generate 69% of total power by 2030 and Russian oil and gas will be gradually phased out. These developments call for an integrated power-led security approach.
More energy storage and demand side response
“The recent year has shown us that business-as-usual in Europe is no longer an option. With the threats faced by our sector, security of supply is becoming an urgent priority that policymakers and regulators must acknowledge“, said Eurelectric’s President and Eon CEO Leonhard Birnbaum.
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To secure Europe’s power supply, the study by Compass Lexecon suggests strengthening three pillars:
1. Better planning: only by adding the pieces together one can see the full puzzle. Preparedness frameworks should encompass the entire value chain, include all energy vectors, infrastructure, span across longer timeframes and factor in external threats to better identify system needs.
2. Flexibility: massive flexible capacity will be needed to complement variable renewables – 175 GW should come from new storage technologies and demand side response by 2030. To incentivise investments, capacity mechanisms and flexibility support schemes will be crucial.
3. Functioning markets: effective price signals should reflect system needs and allow consumers to contribute to security of supply by adjusting their energy use.
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“This is not going to be an easy endeavour. Let’s make sure Europe has the right vision for it.” – concluded Birnbaum. The study was formally unveiled at the Munich Security Conference. (hcn)
