The pace of change in the Polish energy sector shows no sign of slowing. According to the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), photovoltaic capacity could rise from the current 21 GW to 29 GW by 2030. This projection comes from a study by the Energy Forum, a European interdisciplinary think tank based in Poland. Bringing together expertise from public administration, business, academia, and the media, the team aims to drive knowledge-based solutions for a just and effective energy transition.
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26 GW PV are waiting for connection approval
Experts at the Energy Forum, analysing published connection requests, have identified that 26 GW of photovoltaic projects are currently awaiting grid approval. At the same time, the share of renewables in Poland’s electricity mix is projected to reach 56% by 2030, rising further to 69% by 2040. To accommodate these volumes, urgent upgrades to the national grid will be essential.
Editing: mg | Data source: Enegrie Forum Poland
Low-cost renewable energy is an advantage in global competition
Energy prices remain a key concern not only for Polish industry but for Europe as a whole. According to the study, both the United States and China benefit from access to low-cost fossil fuels and renewable energy, while Poland faces high energy costs and regulatory obstacles. The Energy Forum sees a solution in the direct supply of decentralised renewable energy to industry. However, implementation is frequently hindered by complex regulations and high fees – despite legal pathways already being in place.
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Reform package 2024 is not enough
In October 2024, the government published a draft of the National Energy and Climate Plan, which outlines a shift in the energy mix. The goal is to enable investors to implement projects more swiftly and gain access to the electricity grid. Despite these planned reforms, significant barriers for investors remain, the Energy Forum notes. According to the draft, Poland should achieve at least 57 GW of capacity – primarily from photovoltaic and wind power – by 2030. By 2040, this figure is expected to rise to 93 GW. Connecting these volumes to the national grid will require strategic planning of photovoltaic and onshore wind sites. Grid infrastructure must be expanded and supported by intelligent, efficient management to ensure reliable power supply and voltage stability.
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Concrete measures: cable pooling and direct lines
To address these challenges, new regulations were introduced in 2023 to support grid development planning, most notably, the introduction of "cable pooling", which allows multiple renewable energy sources to share a single grid connection point. Direct lines between producers and consumers are also now permitted, helping to ease the load on the public grid.
From the Energy Forum's perspective, however, these reforms are not yet sufficient to prevent a slowdown in renewable energy expansion. For instance, cable pooling should be extended to allow the connection of electricity storage systems as standalone installations. In addition, fees for direct connections should be lowered to encourage their economic viability.
The think tank also calls for further simplification: the creation of designated zones for accelerated renewable energy development, greater transparency in the grid connection process, faster approval procedures for investments, and long-term planning of grid infrastructure – potentially supported by a power auction system.
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Conclusion
The transformation of Poland’s energy sector calls for far-reaching reforms to ensure the efficient integration of renewables into the national grid and to maintain the current momentum of expansion. While recent measures mark a step forward, regulatory barriers still need to be lowered to unlock investment and realise the goal of a climate-neutral energy system. The Energy Forum is calling for broader dialogue and the adoption of innovative, forward-looking solutions. (mg)
Link to the study (in Polish only): Polskie sieci 2040
