New modelling shows that electrification and flexibility can slash average day-ahead energy prices by 25% by 2030, and by 33% by 2040, compared to 2023. At the same time, the solar capture prices will be 71% greater in 2030 compared to the baseline, and 54% higher by 2040, supporting the sustainable growth of solar project developers.
Beyond benefit for consumer and developer, electrifying and flexing the system means system-wide cost savings - €30 billion saved by 2030 per year, and €160 billion save by 2040 per year.
Walburga Hemetsberger, CEO of SolarPower Europe said: “It is time to take the next step in energy transition. We need a flexibility revolution, surrounding renewables with grids, storage and electrification. The new political cycle is an opportunity to build the new energy transition agenda. We call on EU leaders to implement the existing electricity market regulation, set new targets for renewables and flexibility to 2040 and adopt an EU electrification action and investment plan as soon as possible.”
Up to 66 % less curtailment
SolarPower Europe’s new report, Mission Solar 2040: Europe’s Flexibility Revolution, maps out three scenarios through the coming decades; solar-as-usual (SAU), solar + flexibility (SF), and solar + flexibility + electrification (SFE). Compared to SAU, the SFE scenario reduces curtailment – solar energy wasted – by 66% in 2030 and 49% in 2040. The more efficient utilisation of solar energy leads to gains across the economy.
Also see: EU: Higher solar targets – but grid and storage planning insuffienct
With a flexible, electrified system, more solar can be added to the grid. By the end of this decade, the EU could reach 1.2 TW of solar, much higher than the 750 GW EU Solar Strategy goal. By 2040, the EU could host 2.4 TW of solar, meeting 39% of the bloc’s growing power demand.
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Critically, ramped-up solar deployment would empower the decarbonisation of the economy – driving down emissions the equivalent of over 550 MtCO² per year by 2040 compared to current forecasts.
Recommendations
To deliver the new energy system, the Mission Solar 2040 report recommends the incoming EU leadership:
- Set EU targets for renewables and flexibility for 2030 and 2040. Flexibility targets do not exist today, explaining the lack of political oversight and progress on that front.
- Improve energy system modelling capacities, by strengthening the Agency for European Regulators (ACER) and by setting up a new EU Energy Agency to reinforce energy system forecasting.
- Unlock investment in flexibility across the energy system, primarily by ensuring full implementation of agreed electricity market legislation.
- Adopt an EU Electrification Action and Investment Plan within the first 100 days of the next Commission’s mandate. (hcn)
