Supported by data from 50 international expert institutions across the PV value chain, this new ITRPV edition summarizes and discusses crucial parameters through numerous diagrams.
In 2023, the solar photovoltaic global market grew to a record 502 GW in shipments, raising the cumulative global installed PV capacity to over 1.610 TWp. By the end of 2023, the weighted average spot market price of crystalline silicon modules had dropped by almost 50 percent compared to the end of 2022.
The report tracks the price experience curve – average PV module sales price as a function of cumulative shipments – and it indicates a 24.9 percent learning rate from 1976 to 2023. This learning rate reflects the impact of technological advancements as well as market conditions on prices. Technological trends: Silicon Photovoltaics dominates Crystalline silicon photovoltaics dominated about 97 percent of the market share in 2023, with the remainder being thin-film technology.
Monocrystalline Cz-Si wafers dominate the market
Within the silicon- based photovoltaic market, monocrystalline Czochralski silicon (Cz-Si) wafers completely dominates the market share, while mass-produced multicrystalline silicon wafers are now a thing of the past. In 2024, n-type wafers are expected to surpass p-type materials, with GW-scale manufacturers anticipating a 69 percent market share for n-type materials by year-end.
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Regarding cell technologies, n-type TOPCon is set to overtake p-type PERC as the market leader this year. PERC cells will continue to lose market share as tunnel oxide passivated contacts (TOPCon), silicon heterojunction (SHJ), and back contact cells (e.g., IBC) gain traction. Mass-produced tandem-silicon cells are anticipated to enter the market after 2027 based on the survey results.
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Bifacial solar cells are expected to maintain around 90 percent market share in 2024, a figure projected to remain stable over the next decade. In the year 2024, bifacial modules will have a 63 percent market share, indicating the high integration level of bifacial cells in monofacial module configurations.
The reduction of material consumption across various technology routes is a significant focus, including advancements in reducing polysilicon consumption through wafer thickness reduction, silver consumption reduction through fine line printing, and the use of copper-containing metallization. Ozone-based cleaning is expected to dominate in 2024. Equipment throughput values are anticipated to continue their increase in the coming decade. At the module level, copper interconnection is projected to continue dominating the market for cell- to-cell and string interconnection.
Size: wafers, modules and fabs
Wafer formats of 182.0 mm² (M10) and larger already dominate the market, along with the introduction of M10R and G12R formats, the rectangular variants. Wafer sizes of 166 mm² (M6) and smaller are expected to lose market share and eventually disappear in the upcoming years. Even larger sizes, exceeding
210.0 mm² (G12), are anticipated in the near future. For rooftop installations, modules with an area of 1.8 m² to 2 m² remain the most common, while modules with an area of 2.5 m² to 3 m² lead in power plant applications. However, the trend shows that larger modules, exceeding 2 m² for rooftops and 3 m² for power plants, will increasingly gain market share. Most new factories planned for 2024 will have nameplate capacities of 5 GW and larger to benefit from economies of scale. Nonetheless, smaller fabs, including those under 1 GW, will still be deployed to serve niche applications and local markets.
ITRPV
The International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV) is updated regularly by the VDMA Photovoltaics Equipment Sector Group with contributions from leading international crystalline silicon producers, wafer suppliers, cell manufacturers, module manufacturers, PV equipment manufacturers, material manufacturers as well as PV research institutes and consultants. The aim of the ITRPV is to provide information on expectedtechnology trends in the crystalline silicon (c-Si) based photovoltaic industry and to initiate discussions on required technological improvements and standards.
The smarter E Europe
For the third consecutive year, the VDMA Photovoltaics Equipment Sector Group is organizing the PV Manufacturing Stage, a three-day forum in Intersolar Hall A2.409 from 19 – 21 June 2024. Topics include the latest developments in photovoltaics production technologies, with global expert speakers presenting their advancements. Attendees interested in PV manufacturing topics will receive updates from manufacturers, equipment suppliers, and leading research institutes. (hcn)
