According to the Jülich researchers, electricity from wind power and photovoltaics will account for the largest share of electricity supply in the future, at over 90 percent. To minimize the costs of the necessary expansion of renewable energies, it must be adapted to regional conditions. “In this way, the potential of each region can be optimally utilized while at the same time ensuring security of supply,” emphasizes Detlef Stolen, head of Jülich system analysis.
Electrolysers first in the coastal regions
Northern Germany has large wind resources. As a result, electricity generation from renewable energies will increase disproportionately there and new energy centers will emerge. However, in order to take advantage of this location, it must be possible to use the electricity flexibly, emphasizes the study “Ways to a Net-Zero Energy System: A Regional Look at Infrastructure, the Economy, and Society.” It makes sense, for example, to initially push ahead with the construction of electrolysis plants for hydrogen production in the coastal regions.
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The development of hydrogen production in the southern and eastern federal states would follow in a later phase of the transformation in order to be able to meet the increasing demand for hydrogen. According to the study, around 10 percent of Germany's electrolysis capacity will be located in these regions in the future. This regional distribution would enable a low level of curtailment of renewable energies.
Conversion of the natural gas infrastructure for hydrogen
To ensure that all regions of Germany can benefit, the power grid will need to be expanded – this is particularly important for supplying the energy-intensive industrial centers in North Rhine-Westphalia and in the Rhine-Neckar and Rhine-Main areas. If the grid expansion is delayed, less offshore electricity could be purchased. This would then have to be compensated for by the increased expansion of the hydrogen infrastructure, onshore renewable energies, electricity storage and reconversion power plants. Additional investments of around 8 percent would then be necessary in these areas.
Another key aspect is the expansion of the hydrogen network in order to optimally link domestic production, imports, consumers and storage facilities. According to the study, around 18,000 kilometers of pipelines will be needed for this by 2045. However, these would not have to be newly constructed. The demand for natural gas will decline, so that the existing pipeline infrastructure can be converted to hydrogen.
Electricity, biomass, and heat storage for green district heating
According to the simulation by the Jülich systems researchers, the decarbonization of district heating will be achieved primarily through electricity and biomass in combination with heat storage. Biomass and biogas will be used in more rural areas, while electricity will be used in urban centers. Heat pumps and heat storage will align PV generation with heating demand.
According to the study, security of supply in times of dark, cloudy periods and lower electricity production from wind and sun can be ensured by flexible power plants - based on hydrogen, biogas and biomass.
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A large proportion of hydrogen power plant capacities will be built in Lower Saxony and North Rhine-Westphalia, in close proximity to hydrogen storage facilities in salt caverns. In 2030, they will account for just over half of all capacities, and in 2045, for two-thirds. The electricity generated from hydrogen can be transported to the south via the power grid. According to Institute Director Stolten, comprehensive hydrogen storage, including the conversion of existing cavern storage facilities and the construction of new salt caverns, is necessary to ensure the necessary flexibility and security in the system.
Positive economic effects outweigh
According to the study, the transformation to greenhouse gas neutrality entails both opportunities and risks for economic development. Overall, however, the positive effects outweigh the negative ones, according to the study. Overall, employment growth is expected in all regions of Germany compared to today, as demand in the various sectors increases. The study sees a higher risk of job losses in the transformation in the automotive and metal industries, and a low risk in the electrical industry and in education and healthcare.
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The researchers estimate that the costs of converting the energy system to net zero by 2045 would be around 1.2 percent of Germany's gross domestic product. However, it is clear that the consequential costs of damage and negative impacts, as well as the costs of climate adaptation measures, would be significantly higher if investments in climate protection were not made, Stolten emphasized at the presentation of the study last Friday (November 15) in Berlin. It is based on a study by Forschungszentrum Jülich on the European energy transition presented at the end of October.
Broad acceptance of PV and wind power
The Jülich systems researchers see a high level of social acceptance for the energy transition and have evaluated various representative surveys on the subject. Both the expansion of wind energy and photovoltaics are widely accepted in all regions, with photovoltaics leading the way. The expansion of hydrogen production using electrolysers is also supported by the population, though higher acceptance in Germany than in the neighborhood. (hcn)
